Many times as an underwriter I’ve looked at past claims patterns and modelled them to predict future trends.
This seems sensible on the face of it.
Why then when businesses look back on their past impeccable claims record do I feel increasingly uncomfortable?
The reason isn’t that I’m a prophet of doom!
The reason is this. Looking at the past simply tells us what happened. It does not tell us what IS happening or what WILL happen.
So very much has changed in just the last few months. It feels like looking at the past to help us predict the future is just an illogical human instinct. But one that makes us feel like we have control over uncertainty.
We can’t control the uncertainty, but we can prepare for it.